Sep 7, 2006

stats geek time. can the mets win 100 games?

Here is what I gather looking at nothing but statistics..

Their current record is 86-52. Out of 24 remaining games, they'd have to win 14. that's 58.3%, and their winning percentage for the whole year at this point is 62.3%. To win 100 games at the end of the season, their winning % must be 61.7%.

Lets look at the opponents they have left:

4 Games against the dodgers (74-65, .532, 1st place NL west)
7 games against the marlins (70-69, .504, 2nd place NL east)
3 games against the pirates (56-84, .400, last place NL central)
7 games against the nationals (61-78, .439, last place NL east)
3 games against the braves (66-73, .475, 4th place NL east)

11 games against teams with winning records, 13 against teams with losing records.

The strongest team appears to be the hated LA dodgers, who are in a very tight race with the padres to win the NL west. The 2nd place team in the NL west will likely still go to the playoffs as the wildcard. They're 7-3 in their last ten, the same as the mets. They're also the next 4 games the mets play, and those games will be at Shea. The mets are stronger at home than on the road - 45-24 so far this year, a winning percentage of 65.2%. The dodgers are VERY weak on the road, with a record of 30-38, a dismal 44.1%.

The weakest team they'll play looks to be pittsburgh - last place in the worst division in baseball.